Gallup Finds Concerns Rising Over Global Warming and Nuclear Energy Solution
Comments are off; see the production note at the end of this post.
The evidence lies in the graph above from a new Gallup survey. This graph got far less attention this week than a much sharper year-on-year spike in worry and the highest level of belief (in 15 years of tracking) that humans are the main cause.
Based on the short-term shifts, some campaigners already say they see a “tipping point.”
I’d love to think so, but I wouldn’t count on it. Read on for my reasoning.
And of course, as other surveys show, there’s already plenty of consensus — with no red and blue divide — on climate-smart energy choices and policies. (Read “The Conservative Case for Solar Subsidies” to learn more.)
To me, the more subtle background trend is the significant one to watch because it’s like the long-term warming of the climate itself.
Climate varies and climate changes, as is happening now through the steady buildup of heat trapped by accumulating greenhouse gases. As I’ve written countless times, the short-term natural variability in Earth’s linked oceanic and atmospheric systems has sporadically obscured the background warming, with the recent “hiatus” (which appears reconfirmed, depending on how it’s defined) just the latest bump.
Here’s why I see no social or political tipping point: Behind the ups and downs tracked by Gallup, Pew, The Times and others, there’s been little evidence of a shift in what political and socials scientists call “issue salience” for global warming — making it the kind of problem citizens bring to the voting booth.
Depending on which questions are asked, you can always find support for action to stem climate change. A case in point was provided in New York Times/CBS News poll just ahead of the Paris climate talks, which found:
Two-thirds of Americans support the United States joining a binding international agreement to curb growth of greenhouse gas emissions….
But surveys consistently rank the environment in general, and global warming more specifically, at the bottom of lists of public concerns when people are simply asked to say what worries them.
I’ll end on an up note, nonetheless, related to the abundant evidence for broad consensus on smart energy steps. A great distillation of this evidence can be seen in a short video report filed by John Sutter of CNN from the heart of skeptic country — Woodward County, Okla. — last summer. I wrote about it here. But you can watch it right here:
Update, 6:48 p.m. | Gallup also highlighted another significant new finding related to the mix of energy solutions that could cut greenhouse gas emissions:
For the first time since Gallup first asked the question in 1994, a majority of Americans say they oppose nuclear energy. The 54 percent opposing it is up significantly from 43 percent a year ago, while the 44 percent who favor using nuclear energy is down from 51 percent.
I’m not sure I buy into the pollsters’ hypothesis for why this is happening even though the big rise in opposition happened five years since the Fukushima nuclear calamity:
In 2011, Gallup conducted its annual Environment poll a few days before the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan, and at that time, 57 percent of Americans were in favor of nuclear energy. The next time the question was asked in 2012, a similar majority still favored the use of nuclear energy.And although there have not been any major nuclear incidents since Fukushima in 2011, a majority of U.S. adults now oppose nuclear energy. This suggests that energy prices and the perceived abundance of energy sources are the most relevant factors in attitudes toward nuclear power, rather than safety concerns prompted by nuclear incidents.Lower gasoline prices over the past year are likely driving greater opposition toward the use of nuclear power. As Americans have paid less at the pump, their level of worry about the nation’s energy situation has dropped to 15-year-low levels. This appears to have resulted in more Americans prioritizing environmental protection and fewer backing nuclear power as an alternative energy source.
Could it also be that those most concerned about climate change have become convinced that rapid deployment of renewable energy technologies can rapidly decarbonize energy supplies without splitting atoms?
I hope they’re right, but I’m convinced “all of the above” is essential. There’s a rich discussion of this question at Our Energy Policy.
Let me know what you think at the links below (again, no comments this time).
Production note | I’m leaving comments off on this post because I’m going to be in Cuba with 16 documentary students and a Pace University colleague until March 27th. You can read the students’ blog here. I encourage you to engage on these themes in the meantime on my Facebook page or Twitter (@revkin):
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