from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
In its Energy Outlook 2035, BP predicts that CO2 emissions will exceed levels which scientists says pose a threat to climate change unless coordinated action is taken
Carbon emissions are not sustainable, BP has said Photo: ALAMY
BP has warned that carbon dioxide emission levels from burning fossil fuels are unsustainable unless the international community unilaterally introduces tougher binding regulations on atmospheric pollution.
The stark warning from the UK’s second-largest oil company came with the publication on Tuesday of its closely-watched long-term outlook for global energy markets, which predicts that CO2 emissions will increase by 1pc per year, or 25pc in total, through to 2035.
This rise in pollution would be worse than the current rate, which scientists have said would have a negative effect on climate change. The United Nations is seeking to limit the increase of the average global surface temperature to no more than 2C, compared with pre-industrial levels, to avoid "dangerous" climate change, and will hold a major conference in Paris in December to agree on a firm system for restricting emissions.
Bob Dudley, BP chief executive, said: “The most likely path for carbon emissions, despite current government policies and intentions, does not appear sustainable. The projections highlight the scale of the challenge facing policy makers at this year’s UN-led discussions in Paris. No single change or policy is likely to be sufficient on its own.”
Oil companies such as BP and Shell are coming under increasing pressure from shareholders and governments to clearly define their policies surrounding climate change. The so-called “carbon bubble” theory argues that shares in the oil industry could plummet due to the need to limit global warming.
However, many experts are divided over the most effective course of action to take in order to encourage lower fossil-fuel energy consumption and a switch to renewables, especially in the rapidly growing Asian economies.
“Identifying in advance which changes are likely to be most effective is fraught with difficulty. This underpins the importance of policy-makers taking steps that lead to a global price for carbon, which provides the right incentives for everyone to play their part,” said Mr Dudley.
Last November, China and the US - which combined account for 40pc of global carbon dioxide emissions - agreed to firm targets to limit polution. Beijing agreed to concrete limits on emissions for the first time and the US said that it would make further reductions to the levels of CO2 that the world's largest economy pumps into the atmosphere.
BP said renewables will struggle to keep pace with growing demand for energy especially for power in Asia. According to the outlook report: "The rapid growth of renewables currently depends on policy support in most markets, as renewables tend to be more expensive than coal or gas-fired power. As renewables grow in volume, the burden of this policy support can become a constraint on growth. To maintain rapid growth, the costs of renewable power need to keep falling, reducing the subsidy required per unit of power."
Mr Dudley's remarks follow a call last week from Ben van Beurden, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, for the oil industry to take a more active role in the climate change debate. Last month, the Anglo-Dutch company bowed to shareholder pressure to be more public about how it will address global warming. The company’s board agreed to support a motion proposed by the Church of England and 150 other shareholders calling on the company to explain more fully its policy on climate change.
Despite concerns over the long-term impact of polution, BP's latest prediction on carbon emissions is slightly lower than its previous forecast. Last year, the company said in its annual energy report that carbon emissions from energy use would increase by 29pc to 2035, or 1.1 pc annually.
Highlighting the scale of the world’s energy challenge, the report – the first produced by BP’s new chief economist Spencer Dale since he joined from the Bank of England last year – forecast that world energy demand will grow by 37pc from 2013 to 2035. During this period demand for oil will grow by 0.8pc per year, with China eventually overtaking the US as the world's largest consumer of petroleum.
BP also said that it expects Middle East producers, holding the world’s largest reserves of oil and gas, to eventually reassert their dominant role as the world’s primary suppliers. This role has been recently challenged by the biggest annual increase in US oil production on record in 2014, when output jumped by 1.4m barrels per day.
That increase prompted the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to allow prices to fall unchecked in a bid to regain market share. Despite a small rally, Brent crude remains almost 50pc lower in value, at around $60 per barrel, than last June.
“After three years of high and deceptively steady oil prices, the fall of recent months is a stark reminder that the norm in energy markets is one of continuous change,” said Mr Dale.
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