Climate change blamed as thousands die in Indian heat
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For the wealthy of India, the annual heatwave before the monsoon is inconvenient, especially when water stored in black tanks on the roof becomes too hot to use for a shower. For the poor, however, daytime temperatures approaching 50C in the shade can be fatal.
Indian officials have reported about 2,000 heat-related deaths in recent days, many of them in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, with victims succumbing to heatstroke and dehydration and hospitals struggling to cope with a surge of emergency admissions.
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Surfaces of some roads in Delhi have melted in the sun, twisting the paintwork of pedestrian crossings into unusual patterns.
Temperatures often rise sharply in May before the onset of torrential monsoon rains but scientists say average temperatures are only likely to rise in the years ahead as a result of global warming, with damaging effects on health and productivity.
Ramanan Laxminarayan, vice-president for research and policy at the Public Health Foundation of India, said such extreme weather events were early signs of climate change.
India, according to risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, “is likely to experience some of the most significant global increases in heat stress as a result of climate change over the next 30 years”.
Heat stress, defined by using a combined measure of temperature and humidity, is expected to rise sharply by mid-century, with heat stress days rising from 200 to 250 in Andhra Pradesh and from 180 to 231 in Telangana. “Without action, these figures could reduce labour capacity in these states by more than 25 per cent over the next 30 years,” according to an analysis the consultancy issued this week.
In India’s vast cities, the crisis is worsened by the “heat island” effect, in which concrete buildings and paved roads absorb and retain more heat than trees or other plants.
The Centre for Science and Environment said that human-induced global warming had made 2014 the hottest year on record, and urged India’s governments to adapt to climate change. “This includes building awareness about heatwaves and their effects, issuing proper warning systems and building capacity of health workers to deal with such events,” the CSE said.
Health workers say the only city in India to have implemented a serious heatwave plan is Ahmedabad, the main city of Gujarat in the west, which provides heat forecasts and has established “cooling spaces” in large buildings and temples to provide relief to citizens.
Scientists have been predicting for several years that north India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will be among the regions most severely affected by climate change.
A group of Indian and British researchers has forecast that higher temperatures would be noticeable by the 2020s and that the annual average temperature in India would rise by between 2.9C and 5C by the 2080s. “The maximum warming is projected over northern parts of the Indian landmass and the Himalayas,” their report said.
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