Global warming: No more fish and chips?

Huge changes projected for North Sea fisheries
A map from the new University of British Columbia study shows the current distribution of species richness based on data going back to the 1950s.
A map from the new University of British Columbia study shows the current distribution of species richness based on data going back to the 1950s.
Staff Report
FRISCO — Numerous studies have tracked how global warming will affect the distribution of fish, with cold-loving species shifting to higher latitudes. That means popular North Sea fish such as haddock, plaice and lemon sole will become less common, according to UK scientists.
In a new study published in Nature Climate Change, the researchers pointed out that, in the last 40 years, the North Sea has warmed four times faster than the global average.
“We will see a real changing of the guard in the next few decades,” said University of Exeter researcher Dr. Steve Simpson. “Our models predict cold water species will be squeezed out, with warmer water fish likely to take their place. For sustainable UK fisheries, we need to move on from haddock & chips and look to Southern Europe for our gastronomic inspiration,” Simpson said.
The model that combined long-term fisheries datasets and climate model projections from the Met Office to predict the abundance and distribution of the UK’s favourite fish over the next 50 years.
As the North Sea warms, species will have little capacity to move northwards to avoid warming temperatures, since habitat of a suitable depth is not available. Due to higher temperatures, many of the species studied are predicted to reduce in relative abundance.
“Our study suggests that we will see proportionally less of some of the species we eat most of as they struggle to cope with warming conditions in the North Sea,” said Louise Rutterford, postgraduate researcher at the University of Exeter. “We provide new insight into how important local depths and associated habitats are to these commercial species. It’s something that is not always captured in existing models that predict future fish distributions.”
“This provides real confidence in the model’s ability to predict future patterns of fish distributions around the UK,” said Bristol University’s Dr. Martin Genner.

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