Studies: Climate change to bring more heat waves, stronger hurricanes
Talk about your summer bummer.
The number of Americans sweltering through stifling heat waves could well quadruple over the next few decades, according to a study Monday in the British journal Nature Climate Change .
As if that weren't enough, a separate study in the same journal said hurricanes are likely to become more intense, even as their number declines.
In the heat wave study, researchers said people living in Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Tampa and San Antonio are most at risk of enduring many more 95-degree days by 2050.
"Extreme heat is responsible for more deaths in the United States than any other weather-related event, and its frequency and intensity is expected to increase over this century," the study said.
It's not just the change in climate, though, but also the shift in population, as Americans continue to move to the South and West, which have higher temperatures.
By the middle of the century, four to six times as many Americans will endure 95-degree days than at the end of the last century, the study showed.
"Both population change and climate change matter," said study co-author Brian O'Neill, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "If you want to know how heat waves will affect health in the future, you have to consider both."
Researchers used computer models to predict both warm temperatures in the future, as well as projected population trends.
In the hurricane study, "we're seeing fewer hurricanes, but the ones we do see are more intense," said researcher James Elsner of Florida State University .
Hurricane wind speeds have increased 3 mph on average over the past 30 years. But there were also about six fewer storms during that time than there should have been, if global warming had not heated up the oceans, according to the study.
"In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are likely to occur," said study co-author Namyoung Kang, now deputy director of the National Typhoon Center in South Korea. "In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones."
Hurricane season officially begins June 1, though Tropical Storm Ana kicked it off early, hitting the Carolinas on May 10. A relatively quiet hurricane season is forecast for this year.
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